After about 2 years of Motorola dominating the cell phone channels in the US by releasing 10 different models of Razr Phones, Apple came up with something a little different. The IPhone looks really cool and aside from canibalizing their own IPOD market - it will probably attract a lot of attention when its released in the summer.

IPHONE will change the cell phone market - but they may not be the ones who get the maximum benefit from the change.

Here’s my theory:

- The cellular providers will be around for the forseeable future - but there will be an ability to “roll your own” cellular provider soon, and this will take a bite out of their business.
- The availability of WiMax and other low cost long range wireless options will mean that a device that can allow you to do wireless VOIP will be able to replace your current cell phone plan (or merge with your cell phone plan).
- Just as Vonage and the other VOIP companies have enabled people to leave their normal phone company, the advent of WiMax or similar technologies will enable people to take their phone number and have it redirect to VOIP.
- I envision a period of transition in which tech savy people will find their own ways to use VOIP, for example, by subscribing to Verizon or Cingular’s fast data and programming their “smart phone” to use LCR - least cost routing.
- That means that each call dialled will be evaluated to see the lowest cost - then dialed such that it routes via VOIP where that is cheaper.
- Eventually the carriers themselves will need to differentiate themselves and offer more services and cooler phones to keep their subscribers from jumping ship.
- So people will eventuallyend up with “phone number providers” and even that will eventually become a commodity.

IPhone will play a role too. It wakes us up to the fact that the phone is becoming the convergence device.
Eventually the cell phone will be your memory and operating system too. So when you go to work - you pop it into its cradle and you have your desktop and programs and files etc. And your desktop may be MAC!

That’s all I have to say about that right now!

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